Italy’s ‘Acquired’ Inflation Rate for 2025 Set at 1.7%

Rome: Italy’s ‘acquired’ inflation rate for 2025 is projected to be 1.7%, according to Istat. The national statistics agency released this information on Monday, noting that the national consumer price index (NIC), excluding tobacco, saw a monthly increase of 0.4% in July 2025 and a year-on-year rise of 1.7%, consistent with preliminary estimates.

According to Ansa News Agency, Istat attributed the stable inflation rate to contrasting price dynamics across different sectors. Notably, energy prices saw a year-on-year decline, intensifying from -2.1% in June to -3.4% in July, while food prices rose from +3.3% to +3.7%.

In the services sector, there were observable increases in prices for transport-related services, which climbed from +2.9% to +3.3%, and miscellaneous services, which rose from +1.6% to +2.2%. Conversely, the prices for recreational, cultural, and personal care services decelerated from +3.2% to +2.7%.

The Institute of Statistics explained that the stable annual rate of change in the general i
ndex reflects differing trends in various aggregates. Unprocessed food prices accelerated from +4.2% to +5.1%, while processed food prices saw a slight increase from +2.7% to +2.8%. Prices for regulated energy goods decelerated significantly, dropping from +22.6% to +17.1%, and non-regulated energy goods experienced a worsening decline from -4.2% to -5.2%.

Core inflation, excluding energy and unprocessed food, remained steady at +2.0%, with inflation excluding energy alone slightly accelerating from +2.1% to +2.2%. The growth of prices moderated for both goods, decreasing from +0.9% to +0.8%, and services, which fell from +2.7% to +2.6%.

The inflation gap between the services and goods sectors held steady at +1.8 percentage points. The positive quarterly change in the general index was driven by increases in the prices of unregulated (+2.2%) and regulated (+1.2%) energy products, transport-related services (+0.9%), miscellaneous services (+0.6%), processed food products, and recreational, cultural, and pers
onal care services (both +0.3%).

However, there was a monthly decrease in the prices of unprocessed food products (-0.6%) and durable goods (-0.3%). The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for July 2025 showed a month-on-month change of -1.0%, attributed to the summer sales not accounted for by the NIC, and a year-on-year change of +1.7%, down from +1.8% the previous month, in line with preliminary estimates.

The national consumer price index for blue- and white-collar workers’ households (Foi), excluding tobacco, recorded a quarterly change of +0.4% and a trend change of +1.5%.