Italian GDP Growth to Slow in 2025 Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

Rome: Italian GDP growth is expected to decelerate in 2025 amid high geopolitical uncertainty, as highlighted in Istat’s annual report released on Wednesday.

According to Ansa News Agency, Istat’s report indicates a projected slowdown in growth compared to 2024, which already experienced a moderate trend. The national statistics institute attributes this anticipated deceleration to changes in global trade policies. The report includes growth estimates from the IMF, which predicts a 0.4% increase, and from the Bank of Italy and the Ministry of Economy and Finance, which estimate a 0.6% increase, a decline from the 0.7% growth recorded in 2024.

Istat emphasizes that the forecasts for 2025 are heavily influenced by potential developments in international geopolitical tensions, which introduce significant uncertainty to economic projections. Despite these challenges, the report notes a “clear improvement” in Italy’s public accounts, with net debt decreasing from 7.2% to 3.4% of GDP. Additionally, the debt has
increased by seven-tenths to 135.3%, which is below the estimates provided by the Structural Budget Plan and the European Commission. The reduction in interest expenditure and slower GDP growth have contributed to these financial outcomes.