Hungary’s Veto Clouds EU Enlargement Talks
Brussels: A day after the NATO summit in The Hague concludes, European Union leaders are set to convene in Brussels for their regular summer European Council meeting. This summit, beginning on the morning of June 26, could extend into the following day, with Iran and EU enlargement prominently on the agenda.
According to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, Hungary’s persistent veto poses a significant hurdle to EU enlargement talks. The unanimity required to open negotiation clusters has been obstructed by Hungary, which recently held a controversial consultative referendum on Ukraine’s EU membership. Despite hopes that this summit could be a “last chance saloon” to overcome the deadlock, many diplomats remain skeptical that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will change his stance.
The upcoming July summit, coinciding with Denmark’s presidency, is seen as a potential turning point. However, the issue has deepened into a domestic political matter in Hungary, with expectations that Budapest will continue its veto until the country’s parliamentary elections in April 2026. Meanwhile, the draft summit declaration indicates the European Council’s commitment to a merit-based approach for Ukraine and Moldova’s accession, contingent on meeting required conditions.
The key debate centers on whether Ukraine and Moldova should be treated separately in the accession process. While no member states oppose Moldova’s progress, reluctance persists among some to allow this “decoupling,” viewing it as yielding to what they term “Hungarian blackmail.” Conversely, the EU aims to encourage Moldova with its first-ever EU-Moldova summit scheduled for early July and its closely contested parliamentary elections in September.
Preparations for accession talks continue, with hopes that all clusters can be opened with unanimous approval. Montenegro is anticipated to show progress, potentially closing a cluster of chapters by the end of June. Despite previous enthusiasm for “EU enlargement momentum,” the current situation reflects the complexities and challenges faced.
In contrast, Hungary and Slovakia may exhibit more flexibility on sanctions against Russia. Two critical decisions on sanctions are anticipated: the newly proposed 18th round of measures and the six-month renewal of all existing sanctions since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A possible quid pro quo at the summit might involve adopting both sanctions decisions while accepting a pause in Ukraine’s accession progress.
The primary objective for many officials is the extension of existing sanctions, including over 200 billion euros ($230 billion) in frozen Russian assets. Despite previous uncertainties, Hungary’s approval of the sanctions renewal appears more likely, given Russia’s intensified attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets, rendering peace talks improbable.
The approaching deadline for sanction extensions, set for the end of July, instills confidence among those consulted by Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty that a resolution is feasible. The diplomatically agreed-upon 18th sanctions package, focusing on measures like de-SWIFTing Russian banks and sanctioning Nord Stream 1 and 2, is expected to pass smoothly. The proposal to reduce the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel seems unlikely to gain traction, further easing the path to quick approval.