Italy’s GDP to Grow by 0.4% in 2025 Amid Increased Deficit and Public Debt

Milan: Italy’s GDP is projected to grow by 0.4% in 2025, with the deficit expected to rise from 3.3% to 3.6% of GDP and public debt increasing by 1.5 points to 138.4% of GDP. These estimates were released by the Observatory of Italian Public Finance (OCPI) of Milan’s Catholic University, following the publication of ISTAT’s GDP data.

According to Ansa News Agency, the observatory indicated that 2024 should conclude with a real GDP growth of between 0.6% and 0.7%. The report noted that these figures “will not hinder the respect of European rules,” except for a one-year delay concerning the EU’s budget rules on deficit-reduction parameters under 3% of GDP.

Initial estimates released by ISTAT on Thursday showed that Italy’s GDP was flat in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the previous three months, but it was up 0.5% compared to the same period in 2023. The national statistics agency reported a 0.5% GDP growth for the year 2024 compared to 2023, based on seasonally adjusted and calendar-adjusted data, no
ting that there were four more working days in 2024 than in the previous year.

In September, the government had provided a non-calendar-adjusted estimate of 1% growth for Italy’s economy in 2024.