EU Faces Challenges with Georgia Visa Liberalization and Budget Proposal

Brussels: European Union foreign ministers recently convened in Brussels but failed to arrive at a decisive conclusion regarding Georgia’s visa liberalization status. The European Commission, however, has sent a cautionary letter to Tbilisi, indicating that the visa-free travel privileges for Georgians might be suspended if specific conditions are not met by the end of August.

According to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, discussions among EU diplomats revealed that while the issue was acknowledged, unanimity was not achievable, prompting the decision to continue sanctions work at a lower level in Brussels. This suggests that immediate restrictive measures are unlikely. The ministers also did not adopt sanctions against Israeli West Bank settlers and Russian officials, hinting at the EU’s ongoing struggle with consensus in foreign policy decisions.

In the backdrop, there was no significant push to review the EU-Georgia Association Agreement, which could lead to the suspension of certain trade-related provisions. The impact of such a move remains uncertain, as EU imports from Georgia under the agreement’s free trade component are relatively minor, amounting to around 200 million euros. Some member states discussed the possibility, with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas noting that a review remains a potential option that doesn’t require unanimity.

The potential suspension of visa liberalization remains on the table, requiring a qualified majority to be triggered. While support for such a majority is emerging, it is not unanimously favored among member states, with Italy leading a group of eight countries against it, citing disproportionate impacts on the Georgian population. Kallas emphasized the need for readiness to react should Tbilisi fail to comply with the eight visa-free regime benchmarks outlined by the European Commission.

The letter from the European Commission to Georgia, sent on July 15, warned of possible measures under Article 8 of the revised Visa Regulation if non-compliance persists, including activating the visa suspension mechanism. An initial version of the letter circulated without a specific deadline, but the final version requested updates on recommendations by the end of August. However, with the Georgian parliament in recess and the EU on holiday, the firmness of this deadline is questionable.

On another front, the European Commission has unveiled its ambitious vision for the EU’s long-term budget from 2028 to 2034, proposing a record 2-trillion-euro framework. This includes plans to double funds for Ukraine and EU foreign policy while increasing defense-related investments fivefold. Approval of the proposal by all 27 EU member states is required, but this is unlikely before extensive negotiations in 2027.

The proposal represents a significant increase from the 2021-2027 budget, but with several member states facing economic challenges, expanding the EU’s budget is contentious. The European Commission is suggesting new financial resources, like a tobacco tax and levies on large corporations, though their potential impact is uncertain. Additionally, the proposal includes significant funding for defense and foreign policy, with plans to allocate 131 billion euros for defense, marking a substantial increase.

The foreign policy budget, branded as “A Stronger Europe In The World,” encompasses a range of initiatives, including humanitarian aid and pre-accession funds for candidate countries. The proposal includes a revision clause to adjust the budget if new countries join the EU during the period. Notably, Ukraine has been allocated a separate 100-billion-euro fund for reconstruction, though approval may be complicated by member states like Hungary, which have expressed skepticism.

The EU’s leadership, including Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa, is scheduled for international engagements in Asia, with summits in Tokyo and Beijing. Despite the busy international agenda, significant announcements are not anticipated at these summits.